Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
